This morning I listened to one of Ricochet’s podcasts titled, “Q&A, hosted by Jay Nordlinger, Ep. 18: Clarity on Iran, Etc., from One Who Knows”. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jay_Nordlinger
Ricochet is a website for the curious and continual learner. https://ricochet.com/. This Q&A episode was a dialogue between Jay and Elliott Abrams, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_Abrams.
The topic was the Iran agreement which is currently in its 60-day review period in Congress.
Practically speaking there is nothing Congress can do to stop the agreement from being implemented. The explanation is provided in many places on the web.
What they were discussing were implications and future scenarios.
Recommend listening to this podcast if you have 35 minutes; it will be time well spent. The point of this post, however, is to highlight one area of conversation that took place: how will Israel and the Sunni countries in the region react. In particular Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Jay Nordlinger paraphrased something he heard from a former Israeli diplomat regarding the Iran agreement:
“It really does not matter if Iran uses the A-Bomb against us. It does not have to. We will be demoralized. We will live under this shadow. People will leave and they will not come to Israel to live. We will wither under this.”
This strikes me as the best outline of Iran’s strategic plan regarding Israel. I have never bought into the idea that Iran would attack Israel as a direct war effort.
For those of you who follow this website you know that Sunni Muslims comprise 80% of Muslims world wide and that Sunnis view Shites as heretics. They have been conflicting in some fashion or another for 4,000 years. Iran is Shia and Saudi Arabia and Jordan are Sunni.
There are a number of scenarios regarding the Sunni-Shia fallout from this agreement. But it is a near certainty that all the major countries in the region will move to match Iran’s nuclear capabilities sooner rather than later. They have little choice.