Skip navigation

Category Archives: Republican Nominees

The Basics

Donald Trump:

  • leads the Rep polls by a good margin;
  • excels at staying in the news;
  • speaks bluntly and loudly about things considered taboo by the Rep establishment as his mentor Roy Cohn would have done; and
  • is fearless and self-funding


I could go on a bit, but the key point here is that The Donald has tapped into decades of pent-up frustration with the Republican party establishment.

By now, it is not difficult to conclude that both parties compete with each other only to determine who presides.  And that they obfuscate and outright lie when it suits them.  Obama with, “..you can keep your doctor,”  is simply a more audacious example.

Citizens of the right find this model of governance repugnant.  They simply seek a better life – under capitalism – and see that potential slipping away.  Those of the left want to deconstruct traditional America and replace it with socialism.  Whatever it takes.  Blows against the empire couched in the buzzwords of the moment, e.g. fairness.

These two world views are irreconcilable.  The difference now is that instead of passively observing and hoping things will work out, the right sees a growing existential threat to American society and wants it fixed.

Enter Donald Trump.  He hits the Republican establishment like a Sirocco and citizens of the right gravitate to the only beacon of light they see.

That is what is happening here.

Going Forward

The Donald has put his chances of obtaining the Rep nomination and then the presidency at 10-20%.  I think he is right – at current course and speed.

The thing to internalize about that is how he views campaigning.  To use a roulette gambling metaphor, he is betting it all on red.  If it works, it works; if not, little is lost; go home.

That is where The Donald is coming from.

He is now starting to receive quiet and sometimes public advice (Greg Gutfeld) on how to move from being Roy Cohn to being a serious candidate. People are starting to accept that he could get the nomination.

My take is that the upcoming Fox debate will be a watershed moment for Trump and possibly one of the most challenging moments for him personally that he has ever faced.  Challenging in the format, the visibility, the need for disciplined messaging, how he reacts to his antagonists who will challenge his liberal record, and more.

He either does well in the Fox debate by combining his current appeal with debate nimbleness and a presidential gravitas, or it is effectively over.  Win (or place) or go home.

I hope he can pull it off.  But, to quote Yoda in Star Wars, “there is another.”